FT · BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League - Championship Group · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Anderlecht 1–3 Royale Union SGMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Anderlecht at 47%, draw at 25%, Royale Union SG at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Anderlecht to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Anderlecht win
47%
Draw
25%
SG win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.15
Total 2.70
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Anderlecht or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost