> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Thursday 04 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Andorra vs Liechtenstein
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 79% probability because both sides project balanced attacking threat with a combined 2.34 xG, making a low-scoring stalemate unlikely.
Win probability
28.7% home34.4% draw36.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AndorrastepLiechtenstein
1.05Base xG · rolling 26-match1.28
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.08Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.26
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Andorra 2–0 Liechtenstein
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+