Andorra 2–0 LiechtensteinMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 04 June 2026

2–0

Andorra win

> Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Andorra at 29%, draw at 34%, Liechtenstein at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-0. The model's headline call was Liechtenstein to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Andorra win

29%

Actual ✓

Draw

34%

Liechtenstein win

37%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.08 – 1.26

Total 2.34

Actual

2 – 0

Total 2 (-0.3 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 79%

✓ Won

Value

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 50%

✗ Lost

Dark Horse

Draw

Pre-match: 25%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 79% probability because both sides project balanced attacking threat with a combined 2.34 xG, making a low-scoring stalemate unlikely."

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