> MATCH.PREDICT()·Turkey: Süper Lig·Sunday 17 May, 17:00 UTC
Antalyaspor vs Kocaelispor
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Kocaelispor's 28% xG advantage and superior away win probability (39%) make X2 the model's most confident play at 77%.
Win probability
25.9% home35.3% draw38.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AntalyasporstepKocaelispor
0.90Base xG · rolling 26-match1.28
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.97Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.24
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
14
8
3
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
5
6
4
2
1
3
2
2
1
1
4
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Antalyaspor 1–0 Kocaelispor
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+