FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Antalyaspor 1–0 KocaelisporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Antalyaspor at 26%, draw at 35%, Kocaelispor at 39%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Kocaelispor to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Antalyaspor win
26%
Actual ✓
Draw
35%
Kocaelispor win
39%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.97 – 1.24
Total 2.21
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Home Win
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.46x
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- X2✗
- Under 2.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Kocaelispor's 28% xG advantage and superior away win probability (39%) make X2 the model's most confident play at 77%."