> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Saturday 23 May, 18:45 UTC
Antwerp vs KVC Westerlo
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Westerlo's Champions League desperation and near-identical xG create tight odds favoring Over 1.5 Goals at 84% despite modest scoring profiles.
Win probability
38.0% home25.6% draw36.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AntwerpstepKVC Westerlo
1.78Base xG · rolling 26-match1.95
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.92Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.88
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
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4
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1
1
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8
8
5
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8
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1
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1
1
5
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6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 22.5 Shots + Over 8.5 Corners + 1X
Model 31.7% · @ 3.16x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Antwerp 2–0 KVC Westerlo
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+