> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Sunday 07 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Argentina vs Honduras
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals dominates at 71% probability because Argentina's 0.69 xG advantage and 1.67 expected goals forecast a high-volume attacking display at home.
Win probability
50.2% home30.0% draw19.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ArgentinastepHonduras
1.63Base xG · rolling 26-match1.00
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.67Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.98
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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0
7
7
3
1
1
12
12
6
2
2
10
10
5
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5
3
1
4
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2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Argentina 2–0 Honduras
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+