> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Wednesday 10 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Argentina vs Iceland
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals dominates at 71% probability because Argentina's 1.66 expected goals and 0.67 xG advantage over Iceland should generate the attacking volume this total demands.
Win probability
49.7% home30.1% draw20.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ArgentinastepIceland
1.61Base xG · rolling 26-match1.01
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.66Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.99
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
3
1
1
12
12
6
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Argentina 3–0 Iceland
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+