> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Saturday 16 May, 17:00 UTC
Arouca vs Tondela
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Tondela's defensive fragility and 32% away win probability justify backing X2 at 79%, offering superior odds to the balanced 2.58 xG total.
Win probability
35.3% home32.7% draw32.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AroucastepTondela
1.23Base xG · rolling 26-match1.31
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.26
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
8
9
6
2
1
1
10
13
8
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
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3
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2
1
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1
1
1
5
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Arouca 3–1 Tondela
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+