Bawler / Portugal: Primeira Liga / Arouca
Team profile

Arouca Prediction

Per-game numbers from 36 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
10.3
a game
13.8 faced
On target
3.5
a game
4.5 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.8
scored – conceded
a game, 36 matches
Next match
10%
Arouca win chance
at Porto · Sun 23 Aug 19:30

Arouca prediction: for Arouca's next match — Porto vs Arouca on Sunday 23 Aug, 19:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Porto are favoured (66%).

Arouca sit close to the Primeira Liga average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.29 expected goals a game and conceding 1.58. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.20 a game against 1.29 expected. Form is with them: 5 straight wins. Next up is a trip to FC Porto, where the model has them as underdogs at 10%.

Arouca in numbers

36 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.8
Home 1.6Away 1.2
3.6
Corners · per game
give up 5.3
Home 4.1Away 3.2
10.3
Shots · per game
faced 13.8
Home 10.8Away 9.9
3.5
On target · per game
faced 4.5
Home 4.2Away 2.8
Last 6 games
08 Aug
1-0
@ Vitoria Guimaraes
2-5
08 Aug
1-0
@ Vitória de Guimaraes
2-5
16 May
3-1
vs Tondela
5-6
11 May
3-1
@ Gil Vicente
2-6
02 May
2-2
vs Santa Clara
5-6
24 Apr
1-2
@ Alverca
3-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Porto · Sunday 23 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Win
10%
Arouca
Draw
24%
Loss
66%
Porto
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Arouca compare with the Portugal: Primeira Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.29
Below average
Goals against
1.58
Leakier than most
Record
5W 0D 0L
5 settled
Real goals
2.2 – 0.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.29
Conceded1.58

The grey line on each bar is the Portugal: Primeira Liga average (1.35 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Tough market: Result
Arouca matches give the model a harder read here — 0/3 (0%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.
On a 5-match winning run
Form line shows consecutive wins in their most recent settled fixtures. Momentum factor worth weighting.

How Bawler has done on Arouca

20%
of high-confidence calls correct — 1 of 5, below the ~65% baseline — a hard team to read
Result0%0/3
Goals (Over/Under)50%1/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sat 08 Aug@ Vitória de Guimaraes
High confidence: 1X
Sat 16 Mayvs Tondela
High confidence: X2
Mon 11 May@ Gil Vicente
High confidence: 1X
Mon 06 Aprvs Estoril
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Mar@ Moreirense
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INMateo FloresCMfrom Real Betis€1.4m
INMario ClimentLBfrom CadizUndisclosed
INSi-Hoo Parkfrom Chungnam AsanUndisclosed
OUTAmadou DanteLBto FC Zbrojovka BrnoUndisclosed
OUTJoão ValidoGKto ChavesFree transfer
OUTMatías RochaCBto UnionFree transfer
OUTArnau SolàLBto Atletico MadrilenoLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Arouca and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly