> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 17 May, 17:00 UTC
Atlético Madrid vs Girona
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Atlético's Champions League desperation and 0.53 xG advantage justify backing 1X at 80% despite modest home odds.
Win probability
46.5% home30.0% draw23.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Atlético MadridstepGirona
1.54Base xG · rolling 26-match1.18
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.66Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.13
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
1
1
10
12
7
2
1
2
8
10
5
2
1
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners + X2 + Over 8.5 SOT
Model 23.2% · @ 4.31x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Atlético Madrid 1–0 Girona
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+