Bawler / Spain: La Liga / Atlético Madrid
Team profile

Atlético Madrid Prediction

Per-game numbers from 54 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.1
a game
12.0 faced
On target
5.1
a game
4.2 faced
Goals
1.8 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 54 matches
Next match
69%
Atlético Madrid win chance
vs Málaga · Wed 19 Aug 19:00

Atlético Madrid prediction: for Atlético Madrid's next match — Atlético Madrid vs Málaga on Wednesday 19 Aug, 19:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Atlético Madrid win looks most likely (69%).

Atlético Madrid sit close to the La Liga average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.40 expected goals a game and conceding 1.63. Next up is Málaga, where the model makes them clear favourites at 69%.

Atlético Madrid in numbers

54 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 2.2Away 1.3
6.0
Corners · per game
give up 4.3
Home 7.0Away 5.0
13.1
Shots · per game
faced 12.0
Home 15.1Away 11.2
5.1
On target · per game
faced 4.2
Home 6.2Away 4.0
Last 6 games
24 May
1-5
@ Villarreal
9-5
17 May
1-0
vs Girona
9-8
12 May
2-1
@ Osasuna
4-8
09 May
0-1
vs Celta Vigo
10-0
05 May
0-1
@ Arsenal
2-5
02 May
2-0
@ Valencia
7-1

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Málaga · Wednesday 19 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Win
69%
This team
Draw
20%
Loss
12%
Málaga
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Atlético Madrid compare with the Spain: La Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.40
Below average
Goals against
1.63
Leakier than most
Record
3W 1D 3L
7 settled
Real goals
1.1 – 1.4
For / against, per match
Scored1.40
Conceded1.63

The grey line on each bar is the Spain: La Liga average (1.44 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.63 xG per match · +0.17 vs league average of 1.46.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Atlético Madrid fixtures (4/5).

How Bawler has done on Atlético Madrid

86%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5
Result100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Augvs Villarreal

Recent matches (last 7)

Sun 24 May@ Villarreal
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Girona
High confidence: 1X
Tue 12 May@ Osasuna
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 09 Mayvs Celta Vigo
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Wed 29 Aprvs Arsenal
High confidence: X2
Wed 08 Apr@ Barcelona
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Mar@ Real Madrid
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INCristian RomeroCBfrom Tottenham Hotspur€40m
INKang-In LeeCMfrom Paris Saint-Germain€40m
INMorten HjulmandDMfrom Sporting CP€40m
INAlejandro GrimaldoLWBfrom Bayer Leverkusen€22m
OUTThiago AlmadaLMto River Plate€20m
OUTNahuel MolinaRBto Roma€18m
OUTAntoine GriezmannSTto Orlando CityUndisclosed
OUTClément LengletCBto BenficaLoan
OUTJavi MorcilloCMto Elche€1.5m
OUTJavi GalánLBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTJulio DíazLBto Sevilla€1m
OUTHoratiu MoldovanGKto EyüpsporLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Atlético Madrid and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly