FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 10 May 2026
AVS 3–1 FC PortoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had AVS at 16%, draw at 26%, FC Porto at 58%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-1. The model's headline call was FC Porto to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
AVS win
16%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Porto win
58%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.03 – 2.06
Total 3.09
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 88%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl OutMixed@ 4.26x
- Over 8.5 Corners–
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Away Win✗
- Over 22.5 Shots–