> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Sunday 10 May, 17:00 UTC
AVS vs FC Porto
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
16.4% home25.5% draw58.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
AVSstepFC Porto
0.96Base xG · rolling 26-match2.14
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.03Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.06
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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9
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7
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7
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2
1
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2
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals + Away Win + Over 22.5 Shots
Model 23.5% · @ 4.26x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
AVS 3–1 FC Porto
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+