> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 17 May, 19:15 UTC
Barcelona vs Real Betis
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Barcelona's 0.78 xG advantage and 52% win probability make them slight favorites, but Betis's defensive fragility in tight matches creates genuine BTTS risk despite the 45% value on No.
Win probability
52.4% home26.3% draw21.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BarcelonastepReal Betis
1.87Base xG · rolling 26-match1.29
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.02Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.24
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 2.5 Goals + Over 8.5 SOT + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 34.1% · @ 2.93x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Barcelona 3–1 Real Betis
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+