Bawler / Spain: La Liga / Barcelona
Team profile

Barcelona Prediction

Per-game numbers from 54 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
17.2
a game
9.6 faced
On target
6.5
a game
3.7 faced
Goals
2.4 – 1.1
scored – conceded
a game, 54 matches
Next match
63%
Barcelona win chance
at Elche · Sun 23 Aug 19:30

Barcelona prediction: for Barcelona's next match — Elche vs Barcelona on Sunday 23 Aug, 19:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Barcelona win looks most likely (63%).

Barcelona carry a strong attacking profile, creating 2.11 expected goals per game against a La Liga average of 1.44. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.17 goals a game against 2.11 expected. Next up is a trip to Elche, where the model makes them clear favourites at 63%.

Barcelona in numbers

54 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
Home 3.0Away 1.9
6.2
Corners · per game
give up 4.1
Home 6.9Away 5.6
17.2
Shots · per game
faced 9.6
Home 18.2Away 16.4
6.5
On target · per game
faced 3.7
Home 7.4Away 5.6
Last 6 games
16 Aug
0-0
@ Mushuc Runa
3-2
09 Aug
1-2
vs Macara
6-2
06 Aug
1-0
@ LDU Portoviejo
4-4
03 Aug
1-1
@ Leones del Norte
4-6
23 May
1-3
@ Valencia
8-7
17 May
3-1
vs Real Betis
6-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Elche · Sunday 23 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Win
63%
Barcelona
Draw
21%
Loss
16%
Elche
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Barcelona compare with the Spain: La Liga average, per match.

Goals for
2.11
Above average
Goals against
1.44
Tighter than most
Record
3W 0D 3L
6 settled
Real goals
1.2 – 1.2
For / against, per match
Scored2.11
Conceded1.44

The grey line on each bar is the Spain: La Liga average (1.44 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 2.11 xG per match · +0.67 above the Spain: La Liga average of 1.44.

How Bawler has done on Barcelona

50%
of high-confidence calls correct — 3 of 6, below the ~65% baseline — a hard team to read
Goals (Over/Under)60%3/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Thu 27 Augvs Athletic Club

Recent matches (last 6)

Sat 23 May@ Valencia
High confidence: X2
Sun 17 Mayvs Real Betis
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Wed 13 May@ Alavés
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 Mayvs Real Madrid
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Wed 08 Aprvs Atl. Madrid
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Marvs Rayo Vallecano
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INAnthony GordonLWfrom Newcastle United€80m
INKarim AdeyemiAMfrom Borussia Dortmund€22m
INJesse Bisiwufrom Club NXT€8.5m
OUTFerran TorresSTto Paris Saint-Germain€50m
OUTRonald AraujoCBto LiverpoolLoan
OUTAnsu FatiAMto Monaco€11m
OUTRobert LewandowskiSTto Chicago Fire FCFree transfer
OUTIñaki PeñaGKto Panathinaikos€3m
OUTMarc-André ter StegenGKto AjaxLoan
OUTDiego KochenGKto LyngbyLoan
OUTAnder AstralagaGKto Free agentUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Barcelona and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly