> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 09 Jun, 16:30 UTC
Belarus vs Burkina Faso
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 79% probability because Burkina Faso's xG advantage (1.42 vs 0.92) suggests the away side will create enough chances to push this total over the line.
Win probability
21.6% home33.2% draw45.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BelarusstepBurkina Faso
0.89Base xG · rolling 26-match1.44
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.92Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.42
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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10
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Belarus 2–2 Burkina Faso
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+