Belarus 2–2 Burkina FasoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 09 June 2026

2–2

Draw

> Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Belarus at 22%, draw at 33%, Burkina Faso at 45%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Burkina Faso to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Belarus win

22%

Draw

33%

Actual ✓

Faso win

45%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

0.92 – 1.42

Total 2.33

Actual

2 – 2

Total 4 (+1.7 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 79%

✓ Won

Value

Away Win

Pre-match: 53%

✗ Lost

Dark Horse

Draw

Pre-match: 24%

✓ Won

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 79% probability because Burkina Faso's xG advantage (1.42 vs 0.92) suggests the away side will create enough chances to push this total over the line."

> More from Bawler