> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 13:00 UTC
Belgium vs Tunisia
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals at 72% is the call—Belgium's 0.45 xG advantage and combined 2.69 expected total goals point to a high-scoring friendly.
Win probability
44.6% home31.0% draw24.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BelgiumstepTunisia
1.52Base xG · rolling 26-match1.13
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.57Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.12
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
7
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4
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11
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7
2
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8
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1
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2
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5
1
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6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Belgium 5–0 Tunisia
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+