> MATCH.PREDICT()·SPAIN: LaLiga·Sunday 03 May, 16:30 UTC
Betis vs Oviedo
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
65.0% home22.6% draw12.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BetisstepOviedo
1.92Base xG · rolling 26-match0.80
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.07Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.77
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
5
2
1
12
9
4
1
2
12
10
4
1
3
9
7
3
1
4
4
3
1
5
2
1
1
6
1
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Betis 3–0 Oviedo
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+