> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 20:00 UTC
Bolivia vs Scotland
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Scotland's 0.60 expected-goals advantage and 48% win probability justify the X2 draw-or-away banker at 76% — a prudent hedge against Bolivia's home-field unpredictability.
Win probability
21.1% home31.0% draw47.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BoliviastepScotland
0.96Base xG · rolling 26-match1.61
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.99Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.59
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Bolivia 0–4 Scotland
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+