FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Friday, 08 May 2026
Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Eintracht FrankfurtMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 08 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Borussia Dortmund at 49%, draw at 26%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 26%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Borussia Dortmund.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Dortmund win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Frankfurt win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.09 – 1.51
Total 3.60
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 49%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.17x
- Over 22.5 Shots✗
- 1X✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- Over 10.5 Corners✗