Bawler / GERMANY: Bundesliga / Dortmund
Team profile

Dortmund Prediction

Per-game numbers from 45 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.6
a game
11.0 faced
On target
4.8
a game
3.9 faced
Goals
2.1 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 45 matches
Corners
5.0
a game
4.0 against

Dortmund prediction: Bawler's model rates Dortmund at 1.86 expected goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match across 5 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 100% of the time. They have won 4 of their last 5 settled matches. No Dortmund fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Dortmund defend well, conceding 1.33 expected goals per game — below the Bundesliga average of 1.69. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.60 a game against 1.86 expected. Form is with them: 3 straight wins. Across 5 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Dortmund have been correct 100% of the time.

Dortmund in numbers

45 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 2.4Away 1.9
5.0
Corners · per game
give up 4.0
Home 6.7Away 3.4
12.6
Shots · per game
faced 11.0
Home 14.4Away 10.8
4.8
On target · per game
faced 3.9
Home 5.5Away 4.1
Last 6 games
09 Aug
3-2
@ Arsenal
-
16 May
2-0
@ Werder Bremen
5-4
08 May
3-2
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
6-2
03 May
0-1
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
1-1
26 Apr
4-0
vs Freiburg
5-0
18 Apr
1-2
@ Hoffenheim
3-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How Dortmund compare with the GERMANY: Bundesliga average, per match.

Goals for
1.86
Above average
Goals against
1.33
Tighter than most
Record
4W 0D 1L
5 settled
Real goals
2.6 – 1.2
For / against, per match
Scored1.86
Conceded1.33

The grey line on each bar is the GERMANY: Bundesliga average (1.67 scored, 1.69 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.86 xG per match · +0.20 above the GERMANY: Bundesliga average of 1.67.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.33 xG per match · -0.36 vs league average of 1.69.
On a 3-match winning run
Form line shows consecutive wins in their most recent settled fixtures. Momentum factor worth weighting.

How Bawler has done on Dortmund

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 5, well above the ~65% baseline
Result100%2/2
Goals (Over/Under)100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Transfer activity

INKonstantinos KaretsasRWfrom Genk€30m
INJoane GadouCBfrom Salzburg€20m
INKauã PratesLBfrom Cruzeiro€7m
OUTKarim AdeyemiAMto Barcelona€22m
OUTYan CoutoRWBto ComoLoan
OUTJulian BrandtAMto AjaxFree transfer
OUTCole CampbellRWto Elversberg€6m
OUTJulien DuranvilleRWto Lyon€5m
OUTAlmugera KabarLWBto NEC NijmegenLoan
OUTKjell WätjenAMto FC MidtjyllandUndisclosed
OUTSalih ÖzcanDMto BeşiktaşFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Dortmund and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly