FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Brighton & Hove Albion 3–0 Wolverhampton WanderersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Brighton & Hove Albion at 55%, draw at 27%, Wolverhampton Wanderers at 19%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Brighton & Hove Albion.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Albion win
55%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Wanderers win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.97 – 1.09
Total 3.06
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.13x
- 1X✓
- Over 22.5 Shots✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✗