> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Saturday 09 May, 14:00 UTC
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
54.7% home26.7% draw18.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Brighton & Hove AlbionstepWolverhampton Wanderers
1.82Base xG · rolling 26-match1.14
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.97Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.09
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
5
5
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1
1
9
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2
1
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9
10
5
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6
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5
1
1
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6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 22.5 Shots + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 31.9% · @ 3.13x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Brighton & Hove Albion 3–0 Wolverhampton Wanderers
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+