> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 09 Jun, 10:00 UTC
Cambodia vs Hong Kong
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Back 1X at 74%—Cambodia's home advantage and a near-identical 0.98 xG to Hong Kong's 0.96 suggest this fixture will either stay level or finish to the host, making the draw-or-home double the banker play.
Win probability
31.3% home38.3% draw30.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CambodiastepHong Kong
0.95Base xG · rolling 26-match0.98
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.98Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.96
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14
14
7
2
1
1
14
14
7
2
1
2
7
7
3
1
3
2
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Cambodia 2–0 Hong Kong
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+