Bawler / Cambodia vs Hong Kong / Recap
FT · World: International Friendly · Tuesday, 09 June 2026

Cambodia 2–0 Hong KongMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 09 June 2026

Cambodia
2–0
Cambodia win
Hong Kong
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Cambodia at 31%, draw at 38%, Hong Kong at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-0. The model's headline call was a draw.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Cambodia win
31%
Actual ✓
Draw
38%
Kong win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.98 – 0.96
Total 1.94
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (+0.1 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Back 1X at 74%—Cambodia's home advantage and a near-identical 0.98 xG to Hong Kong's 0.96 suggest this fixture will either stay level or finish to the host, making the draw-or-home double the banker play."

> More from Bawler