> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Friday 12 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Canada vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Canada's home advantage and 0.34 xG edge make 1X the banker play at 78%, offering heavy odds-on protection against Bosnia's 27% win probability.
Win probability
41.7% home31.7% draw26.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CanadastepBosnia-Herzegovina
1.38Base xG · rolling 26-match1.20
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.16
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
1 pickProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Canada 1–1 Bosnia-Herzegovina
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+