FT · World: World Cup · Friday, 12 June 2026

Canada 11 Bosnia-HerzegovinaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 12 June 2026

> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Canada at 42%, draw at 32%, Bosnia-Herzegovina at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Canada to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Canada win
42%
Draw
32%
Actual ✓
Bosnia-Herzegovina win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.491.16
Total 2.65
Actual
11
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
X2
Pre-match: 48%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Canada's home advantage and 0.34 xG edge make 1X the banker play at 78%, offering heavy odds-on protection against Bosnia's 27% win probability."

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