> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 23:30 UTC
Canada vs Republic of Ireland
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Draw or Ireland win (X2) lands at 77% combined probability, backed by nearly identical expected goals (Canada 1.36 vs Ireland 1.28) that suggest neither side will dominate.
Win probability
35.8% home32.3% draw32.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CanadastepRepublic of Ireland
1.32Base xG · rolling 26-match1.29
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.36Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.28
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
1 pickProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Canada 1–1 Republic of Ireland
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+