Canada 1–1 Republic of IrelandMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 06 June 2026

1–1

Draw

> Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Canada at 36%, draw at 32%, Republic of Ireland at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Canada to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Canada win

36%

Draw

32%

Actual ✓

Ireland win

32%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.36 – 1.28

Total 2.64

Actual

1 – 1

Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Pre-match: 77%

✓ Won

Value

Pre-match: 50%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Draw

Pre-match: 23%

✓ Won

> What we said pre-match

"Draw or Ireland win (X2) lands at 77% combined probability, backed by nearly identical expected goals (Canada 1.36 vs Ireland 1.28) that suggest neither side will dominate."

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