> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 16 May, 23:30 UTC
Charlotte FC vs Toronto FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Charlotte's 1.45 xG advantage and superior win probability (40%) makes 1X backing the home side's slight edge in a low-scoring matchup.
Win probability
39.7% home31.9% draw28.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Charlotte FCstepToronto FC
1.34Base xG · rolling 26-match1.24
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.45Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.20
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Charlotte FC 3–1 Toronto FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+