Bawler / USA: MLS / Charlotte
Team profile

Charlotte Prediction

Per-game numbers from 52 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
10.8
a game
14.8 faced
On target
4.2
a game
5.2 faced
Goals
1.6 – 1.2
scored – conceded
a game, 52 matches
Next match
33%
Charlotte win chance
at Toronto · Wed 19 Aug 23:30

Charlotte prediction: for Charlotte's next match — Toronto vs Charlotte on Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Toronto are favoured (40%).

Charlotte sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.37 expected goals a game and conceding 1.50. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.00 a game against 1.37 expected. Recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5. Next up is a trip to Toronto FC, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 33%.

Charlotte in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.2
Home 1.9Away 1.2
4.1
Corners · per game
give up 5.3
Home 4.1Away 4.1
10.8
Shots · per game
faced 14.8
Home 11.7Away 9.5
4.2
On target · per game
faced 5.2
Home 4.9Away 3.3
Last 6 games
15 Aug
3-1
vs Columbus Crew
1-13
12 Aug
0-1
vs Pachuca
5-6
08 Aug
2-0
vs Atlas
1-8
05 Aug
3-0
vs UNAM Pumas
6-5
02 Aug
1-2
@ Chicago Fire
6-8
25 Jul
2-0
@ New York Red Bulls
1-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Toronto · Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Win
33%
Charlotte
Draw
28%
Loss
40%
Toronto
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Charlotte compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.37
Below average
Goals against
1.50
Leakier than most
Record
7W 2D 3L
12 settled
Real goals
2.0 – 1.1
For / against, per match
Scored1.37
Conceded1.50

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

How Bawler has done on Charlotte

67%
of high-confidence calls correct — 8 of 12
Goals (Over/Under)67%6/9
Result67%2/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Augvs D.C. United

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Augvs Columbus Crew
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 02 Aug@ Chicago Fire FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 25 Jul@ Red Bull New York
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Julvs Atlanta United FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 Mayvs New England Revolution
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Toronto FC
High confidence: 1X
Thu 14 Mayvs New York City FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 Mayvs FC Cincinnati
High confidence: X2
Sun 03 May@ New England Revolution
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 19 Apr@ New York City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INAllan Saint-MaximinLWfrom LensFree transfer
OUTKerwin VargasRWto Athletico Paranaense€5.2m
OUTDrake CallenderGKto Minnesota United€380k
OUTJahlane ForbesLBto Las Vegas Lights FCFree transfer
OUTNicholas HollidayGKto Carolina CoreLoan
OUTMikah ThomasLBto Indy ElevenLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Charlotte and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly