> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Tuesday 19 May, 19:15 UTC
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Chelsea's overwhelming xG advantage (1.79 vs 1.08) and higher win probability (51%) justify backing the home side despite Tottenham's desperation-fueled motivation in a relegation battle.
Win probability
50.8% home28.7% draw20.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ChelseastepTottenham Hotspur
1.65Base xG · rolling 26-match1.12
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.79Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.08
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
3
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
1
3
5
6
3
1
4
2
3
1
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Chelsea 2–1 Tottenham Hotspur
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+