Bawler / England: Premier League / Chelsea
Team profile

Chelsea Prediction

Per-game numbers from 50 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.4
a game
10.4 faced
On target
4.6
a game
4.1 faced
Goals
1.6 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 50 matches
Next match
42%
Chelsea win chance
at Fulham · Mon 24 Aug 19:00

Chelsea prediction: for Chelsea's next match — Fulham vs Chelsea on Monday 24 Aug, 19:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Chelsea win looks most likely (42%).

Chelsea carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.76 expected goals per game against a Premier League average of 1.44. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.75 goals a game against 1.76 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Next up is a trip to Fulham, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 42%.

Chelsea in numbers

50 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.4Away 1.7
6.0
Corners · per game
give up 3.9
Home 7.1Away 4.8
13.4
Shots · per game
faced 10.4
Home 15.2Away 11.5
4.6
On target · per game
faced 4.1
Home 4.7Away 4.5
Last 6 games
24 May
1-2
@ Sunderland
2-6
19 May
2-1
vs Tottenham
3-4
16 May
0-1
vs Manchester City
-
09 May
1-1
@ Liverpool
2-5
04 May
1-3
vs Nott'm Forest
10-1
26 Apr
1-0
vs Leeds
6-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Fulham · Monday 24 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Win
42%
Chelsea
Draw
27%
Loss
32%
Fulham
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Chelsea compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.76
Above average
Goals against
1.39
Tighter than most
Record
2W 1D 5L
8 settled
Real goals
0.8 – 1.5
For / against, per match
Scored1.76
Conceded1.39

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.44 scored, 1.47 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.76 xG per match · +0.32 above the England: Premier League average of 1.44.

How Bawler has done on Chelsea

63%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 8
Goals (Over/Under)60%3/5
Result50%1/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 8)

Sun 24 May@ Sunderland
High confidence: X2
Tue 19 Mayvs Tottenham Hotspur
High confidence: 1X
Sat 16 Mayvs Manchester City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 09 May@ Liverpool
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 04 Mayvs Nottingham
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Aprvs Leeds
High confidence: Chelsea or Draw (Double Chance)
Sat 18 Aprvs Manchester Utd
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Mar@ Everton
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INMorgan RogersAMfrom Aston Villa€137m
INMaxence LacroixCBfrom Crystal Palace€61m
INMarco PalestraRMfrom Atalanta€55m
INGeovany QuendaRWfrom Sporting CP€50m
INEmanuel EmeghaSTfrom StrasbourgUndisclosed
INValentín BarcoDMfrom Strasbourg€40m
INPep ChavarríaLBfrom Rayo Vallecano€19m
INDanny WelbeckSTfrom Brighton & Hove Albion€5.8m
OUTAndrey SantosDMto Manchester United€56m
OUTMarc CucurellaLBto Real Madrid€55m
OUTAlejandro GarnachoLWto Aston VillaLoan
OUTTrevoh ChalobahCBto Como€30m
OUTFilip JörgensenGKto StrasbourgLoan
OUTDastan SatpaevSTto BurnleyLoan
OUTJimmy-Jay MorganAMto West Bromwich AlbionUndisclosed
OUTHarrison Murray-CampbellCBto KortrijkLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

FPL assets at this club (2026/27 projections)

PalmerPalmerMID · £9.5m · 10.8% owned4.6 pts
João PedroJoão PedroFWD · £7.5m · 58% owned3.7 pts
EnzoEnzoMID · £7.0m · 5.4% owned3.6 pts
RogersRogersMID · £7.5m · 26.7% owned3.1 pts
CaicedoCaicedoMID · £5.5m · 4% owned3.1 pts
Next 5:FUL (A)BHA (H)ARS (A)HUL (H)BRE (A)

Full predicted points table → · Fixture difficulty matrix →

More on Chelsea and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly