> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 24 May, 00:30 UTC
Chicago Fire FC vs Toronto FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Chicago's 0.59 xG advantage and 48% win probability make 1X (78% implied) the banker pick despite modest home edge.
Win probability
48.0% home29.5% draw22.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Chicago Fire FCstepToronto FC
1.58Base xG · rolling 26-match1.16
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.71Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.12
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
1
3
5
6
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Chicago Fire FC 2–1 Toronto FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+