FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Chicago Fire FC 2–1 Toronto FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Chicago Fire FC at 48%, draw at 30%, Toronto FC at 22%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Chicago Fire FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
FC win
22%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.71 – 1.12
Total 2.82
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Chicago's 0.59 xG advantage and 48% win probability make 1X (78% implied) the banker pick despite modest home edge."