> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 24 May, 18:45 UTC
Cremonese vs Como
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Como's superior motivation (Champions League race vs relegation desperation) combined with their 0.44 xG advantage makes X2 the banker play at 83%.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Cremonese
Battling relegation
18th · 1 from safety · 1 left
Model nudged xG by +5% for motivation
Away
Como
Pushing for Champions League
5th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by +3.8% for motivation
Win probability
23.3% home33.0% draw43.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CremonesestepComo
0.91Base xG · rolling 26-match1.48
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.98Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.42
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
13
9
4
2
1
9
13
9
4
2
2
4
6
4
2
1
3
1
2
1
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Cremonese 1–4 Como
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+