Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Como
Team profile

Como Prediction

Per-game numbers from 41 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.4
a game
9.0 faced
On target
5.1
a game
3.1 faced
Goals
1.8 – 0.8
scored – conceded
a game, 41 matches
Next match
46%
Como win chance
at Udinese · Sat 22 Aug 16:30

Como prediction: for Como's next match — Udinese vs Como on Saturday 22 Aug, 16:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Como win looks most likely (46%).

Como are the most complete profile in this data: creating 1.52 expected goals a game while giving up just 1.01. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.00 a game against 1.52 expected. Form is with them: 4 straight wins. Next up is a trip to Udinese, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 46%.

Como in numbers

41 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 0.8
Home 1.9Away 1.6
4.5
Corners · per game
give up 3.2
Home 5.0Away 4.0
14.4
Shots · per game
faced 9.0
Home 16.7Away 12.2
5.1
On target · per game
faced 3.1
Home 6.3Away 3.9
Last 6 games
31 Jul
3-2
@ Famalicao
-
29 Jul
1-2
@ Villarreal
-
29 Jul
3-1
vs Al-Ula
-
24 May
4-1
@ Cremonese
4-2
17 May
1-0
vs Parma
15-2
10 May
1-0
@ Verona
7-7

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Udinese · Saturday 22 Aug, 16:30 UTC

Win
46%
Como
Draw
30%
Loss
24%
Udinese
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Como compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.52
Above average
Goals against
1.01
Tighter than most
Record
5W 1D 1L
7 settled
Real goals
2.0 – 0.4
For / against, per match
Scored1.52
Conceded1.01

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.24 scored, 1.32 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.52 xG per match · +0.27 above the Italy: Serie A average of 1.24.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.01 xG per match · -0.31 vs league average of 1.32.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 83% of the time on Como fixtures (5/6).
On a 4-match winning run
Form line shows consecutive wins in their most recent settled fixtures. Momentum factor worth weighting.

How Bawler has done on Como

71%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Result83%5/6

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

Sun 24 May@ Cremonese
High confidence: X2
Sun 17 Mayvs Parma
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 May@ Hellas Verona
High confidence: X2
Sun 26 Apr@ Genoa
High confidence: Genoa or Draw (Double Chance)
Fri 17 Apr@ Sassuolo
High confidence: X2
Mon 06 Apr@ Udinese
High confidence: X2
Sun 22 Marvs Pisa
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INNico PazAMfrom Real Madrid€60m
INTrevoh ChalobahCBfrom Chelsea€30m
INYan CoutoRWBfrom Borussia DortmundLoan
INÁlvaro MorataSTfrom Milan€12m
INKaikiLBfrom CruzeiroLoan
INMattia LiberaliAMfrom Catanzaro€6m
INLuis MillaCMfrom GetafeFree transfer
INAndrés CuencaCBfrom Barcelona€500k
OUTYannik EngelhardtDMto Freiburg€7m
OUTStefan PoschCBto Mainz 05€4m
OUTPatrick CutroneSTto Monza€4m
OUTAndréa Le BorgneCMto Hellas VeronaLoan
OUTMërgim VojvodaRWto Udinese€1.5m
OUTFellipe JackCBto CremoneseLoan
OUTTommaso CassandroCBto PalermoUndisclosed
OUTSergi RobertoDMto Free agentUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Como and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly