> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 02 Jun, 16:00 UTC
Croatia vs Belgium
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Croatia's home draw appeal hinges on near-parity in expected output (1.47 vs 1.37 xG), making X2 the banker at 75% combined draw-or-away probability.
Win probability
36.7% home30.8% draw32.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CroatiastepBelgium
1.43Base xG · rolling 26-match1.39
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.47Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.37
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Croatia 0–2 Belgium
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+