Bawler / World: World Cup / Croatia
Team profile

Croatia Prediction

Per-game numbers from 4 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
9.5
a game
11.5 faced
On target
4.0
a game
2.0 faced
Goals
1.5 – 1.8
scored – conceded
a game, 4 matches
Corners
3.5
a game
8.0 against

Croatia prediction: Bawler's model rates Croatia at 1.52 expected goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match across 8 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 88% of the time. They have won 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Croatia fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Croatia sit close to the World Cup average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.52 expected goals a game and conceding 1.30. Across 8 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Croatia have been correct 88% of the time.

Croatia in numbers

4 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.8
Home 2.0Away 1.3
3.5
Corners · per game
give up 8.0
Away 3.5
9.5
Shots · per game
faced 11.5
Away 9.5
4.0
On target · per game
faced 2.0
Away 4.0
Last 4 games
02 Jul
1-2
@ Portugal
5-9
27 Jun
2-1
vs Ghana
-
23 Jun
1-0
@ Panama
2-7
17 Jun
2-4
@ England
-

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How Croatia compare with the World: World Cup average, per match.

Goals for
1.52
Above average
Goals against
1.30
Tighter than most
Record
4W 0D 4L
8 settled
Real goals
1.4 – 1.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.52
Conceded1.30

The grey line on each bar is the World: World Cup average (1.33 scored, 1.38 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.52 xG per match · +0.19 above the World: World Cup average of 1.33.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 86% of the time on Croatia fixtures (6/7).

How Bawler has done on Croatia

88%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 8, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)86%6/7

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 8)

More on Croatia and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly