FT · SCOTLAND: Premiership - Relegation Group · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Dundee Utd 3–0 Dundee FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Dundee Utd at 46%, draw at 26%, Dundee FC at 28%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Dundee Utd.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Utd win
46%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
FC win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 1.10
Total 2.60
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Dundee Utd or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost