Bawler / SCOTLAND: Premiership / Dundee
Team profile

Dundee Prediction

Per-game numbers from 41 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
9.9
a game
15.3 faced
On target
3.2
a game
5.5 faced
Goals
1.0 – 1.6
scored – conceded
a game, 41 matches
Next match
22%
Dundee win chance
at Dundee United · Sat 22 Aug 16:45

Dundee prediction: for Dundee's next match — Dundee United vs Dundee on Saturday 22 Aug, 16:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Dundee United are favoured (49%).

Dundee sit close to the Premiership average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.11 expected goals a game and conceding 1.62. Recent form is poor — 4 defeats in a row. Next up is a trip to Dundee United, where the model has them as underdogs at 22%.

Dundee in numbers

41 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.0
Goals · per game
let in 1.6
Home 1.6Away 0.5
4.0
Corners · per game
give up 5.7
Home 4.4Away 3.6
9.9
Shots · per game
faced 15.3
Home 10.6Away 9.2
3.2
On target · per game
faced 5.5
Home 3.6Away 2.8
Last 6 games
15 Aug
0-3
@ Aberdeen
10-7
08 Aug
0-1
vs Aberdeen
2-5
03 Aug
0-1
@ Celtic
4-9
17 May
3-2
vs Aberdeen
7-2
12 May
1-3
@ Kilmarnock
2-6
09 May
3-0
vs Livingston
7-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Dundee United · Saturday 22 Aug, 16:45 UTC

Win
22%
Dundee
Draw
29%
Loss
49%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Dundee compare with the SCOTLAND: Premiership average, per match.

Goals for
1.11
Below average
Goals against
1.62
Leakier than most
Record
0W 0D 4L
4 settled
Real goals
0.3 – 1.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.11
Conceded1.62

The grey line on each bar is the SCOTLAND: Premiership average (1.34 scored, 1.40 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.11 xG per match · -0.23 above the SCOTLAND: Premiership average of 1.34.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.62 xG per match · +0.22 vs league average of 1.40.
4-match losing run
Form line shows consecutive losses in their most recent settled fixtures. Confidence is low going into the next match.

Recent matches (last 4)

Sat 08 Augvs Aberdeen
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Apr@ Dundee Utd
High confidence: Dundee Utd or Draw (Double Chance)
Sun 05 Aprvs Celtic
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Mar@ Hearts
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INOwen GoodmanGKfrom Crystal PalaceLoan
INIdris OdutayoLBfrom BromleyFree transfer
INRyan FinniganCMfrom BlackpoolUndisclosed
INAlan ForrestRMfrom HeartsFree transfer
INZan Besirfrom PrimorjeFree transfer
INOwen Bevanfrom AFC BournemouthUndisclosed
OUTLuke GrahamCBto Stoke CityUndisclosed
OUTJon McCrackenGKto Bradford CityFree transfer
OUTAaron DonnellyCBto Dunfermline AthleticLoan
OUTBilly KoumetioCBto Charlton AthleticUndisclosed
OUTEmile AcquahSTto Notts CountyUndisclosed
OUTClark RobertsonCBto Brunei DPMMFree transfer
OUTPaul DigbyCMto Colchester UnitedFree transfer
OUTLewis MontsmaCBto Port ValeFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Dundee and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly