> MATCH.PREDICT()·Germany: Bundesliga·Saturday 16 May, 13:30 UTC
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Stuttgart's superior motivation in Champions League race combined with marginally higher xG (1.52 vs 1.48) makes away win or draw the play at 66% combined probability.
Win probability
34.1% home29.9% draw36.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Eintracht FrankfurtstepVfB Stuttgart
1.37Base xG · rolling 26-match1.58
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.48Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.52
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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8
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11
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1
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 SOT + X2 + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 30.9% · @ 3.24x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 VfB Stuttgart
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+