FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 16 May 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 VfB StuttgartMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Eintracht Frankfurt at 34%, draw at 30%, VfB Stuttgart at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was VfB Stuttgart to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Frankfurt win
34%
Draw
30%
Actual ✓
Stuttgart win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.48 – 1.52
Total 3.00
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 44%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.24x
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Stuttgart's superior motivation in Champions League race combined with marginally higher xG (1.52 vs 1.48) makes away win or draw the play at 66% combined probability."