> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 09 Jun, 16:00 UTC
Equatorial Guinea vs Comoros
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Equatorial Guinea's 0.64 xG advantage and 49% win probability make 1X the banker at 63%, offering value against Comoros' blunt attacking threat.
Win probability
48.6% home33.8% draw17.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Equatorial GuineastepComoros
1.35Base xG · rolling 26-match0.76
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.39Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.74
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12
9
3
1
1
16
12
5
1
2
11
8
3
1
3
5
4
1
4
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Equatorial Guinea 0–1 Comoros
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+