Equatorial Guinea 0–1 ComorosMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 09 June 2026

0–1

Comoros win

> Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Equatorial Guinea at 49%, draw at 34%, Comoros at 18%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Equatorial Guinea to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Guinea win

49%

Draw

34%

Comoros win

18%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.39 – 0.74

Total 2.13

Actual

0 – 1

Total 1 (-1.1 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Pre-match: 63%

✗ Lost

Value

Under 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 52%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Draw

Pre-match: 24%

✗ Lost

Bawl OutMixed@ 3.01x

Under 10.5 Corners–
1X✗
Over 1.5 Goals✗

> What we said pre-match

"Equatorial Guinea's 0.64 xG advantage and 49% win probability make 1X the banker at 63%, offering value against Comoros' blunt attacking threat."

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