> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 09 Jun, 15:00 UTC
Ethiopia vs Malawi
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 70% probability because Ethiopia and Malawi combine for 2.34 expected goals in a fixture where neither side holds a meaningful xG edge.
Win probability
33.6% home34.5% draw31.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
EthiopiastepMalawi
1.16Base xG · rolling 26-match1.17
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.19Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.16
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
10
11
6
2
1
1
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8
3
1
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7
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5
2
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3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Ethiopia 1–1 Malawi
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+