FT · World: International Friendly · Tuesday, 09 June 2026

Ethiopia 1–1 MalawiMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 09 June 2026

1–1

Draw

> Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Ethiopia at 34%, draw at 35%, Malawi at 32%. The match ended 1-1 — confirming the model's lean toward a draw.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Ethiopia win

34%

Draw

35%

Actual ✓

Malawi win

32%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.19 – 1.16

Total 2.34

Actual

1 – 1

Total 2 (-0.3 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 70%

✓ Won

Value

BTTS Yes

Pre-match: 45%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Draw

Pre-match: 25%

✓ Won

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 70% probability because Ethiopia and Malawi combine for 2.34 expected goals in a fixture where neither side holds a meaningful xG edge."

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