FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Excelsior 1–1 FC VolendamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Excelsior at 47%, draw at 26%, FC Volendam at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Excelsior to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Excelsior win
47%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Volendam win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.08 – 1.58
Total 3.67
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 48%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.13x
- Over 8.5 SOT✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✗
- Over 9.5 Corners✗
- 1X✓